July, August, the second quarter, were the economic times most critical of the year. In some cases, it is difficult to find other peers.
The data that follow are compared with the same period of 2015, because as well advised to the formula considered more rigorous when measuring indicators of this type. And for no added mess that comes, is worth to clarify one point: the relations with 2015 are either July, August or in the second quarter.
Two of those data describe the box industrial. Say falls average of 5.7 to 7.9% for the production and productive capacity without the use of 38%, the lowest level since 2002.
Always with a negative sign, are recorded 27.5% in cement and 19.6% in other materials of construction; 18% in dairy products; 10.6% in beverages and 10% on pharmacy items. Also, to 13.3% for cars; 9.4% in red meat; 11.5% in detergents and 8% sugar.
Taken from a report of the Foundation Capital, the list goes on, without change of sign, with oil-refining, paper and cardboard, cotton yarn, and cigarettes, among others. It is varied enough to address the concerns of each and, of step, to explain that the recession did not distinguish or distinguishes sectors.
Predictable, nor was the margin for productive investment. Has receded to 14% of GDP, a record low in any comparison and very lean if you are seeking a breakthrough long-lasting economic activity.
And needless to say, from one side to the other they cross the climb of prices and the consequent fall in the real wage and other fixed income. All together speaking, at the end, where it was to stop the consumption, by far the variable of greater weight in the economy.
Such a cataract of figures puts the framework to an exercise that tested several officials and some analysts, clearly functional to the expectations from the Government is looking to install.
Is to select well data and recent comparison with the slump of a month prior. Thus, it is possible to find numbers that veer from negative to positive, and maybe turn on the idea that the economy starts to climb out of the pit.
Can be a valid measure of things, only that it passes over precisely the depth of the well to which activity has fallen and from which part.
But if this is treated, they should explain it to Federico Sturzenegger, the head of the Central Bank, which insists on keeping the interest rates in the 26,75% per annum and the monetary policy targeted against the lawsuit. Because he believes that to spare pesos and that inflation is still alive and kicking.
Also they should let them understand those who claim that there is little to start to sing victory. "We want to see if we are before a bounce, or before a true rebound in the economy," says a consultant quite aligned with the ideas of the macrismo.
And as never missing a fashion opportunity, jumped to the arena for the so-called "green shoots", that is, those sectors that show improvements. Then, there is a frantic search for green shoots everywhere.
The key, by the way known, is that if something is changing is perceived by the people, and to the mode as understood by the people, in matters that touch closely. Only then would be modified defensive behaviors, and revive personal projects.
A survey of the Central Bank between local specialists and foreign keeps the economy in a state reserved. Boot and contrasting with the official forecasts, forecasts recession also in the last quarter of the year.
by June, most estimated an annual decline of 1.3 to 1.4%. There are already at 1.7% and, on the outside of the survey, a few consultants tend to smudge towards the -2%, including a record slightly higher at -2%. It is clear that the question is about the magnitude of the contraction.
Argentina comes from three years of stagnation with setbacks or partial, if you prefer, of a very modest 1.8% increase in GDP per capita. The economy went from pressed to recessive and entered on a slope that urge to leave.
What happens to a country like ours that has squandered so many years?, asked Clarín, a consultant who has past by other governments.
Response: "It happens that that is the view. Unemployment and fear to stay without work, because the private sector does not create employment, and there comes a moment in which neither the creation of the State. Increase of poverty, because over the economy shed uneven. Loss of competitiveness, because costs go up even with inflation. And by lack of investment, deteriorating infrastructure which, moreover, was full of holes". It is the slope.
And how comes the economy for the next year?
According to the survey of the BCRA, the activity would grow by 3.2%, which implies return to levels of the first half of last year. If it is, there will be an increase moderate.
Only a 5% would mean a comeback for the entire line; is the estimate of economists who read with optimism the package of measures prepared and in part launched by the Government. Equal to 6% projected by others onto the months leading up to the elections of 2017.
In the now and also with the focus placed on prevent hot flashes of the end of the year, several ministries of pushing expenses. As the provision of land and basic infrastructure-oriented social strata of the fewest resources and the housing program, Interior and Public Works. Or the so-called Plan to Work and food aid, in Social Development.
Always at the head march the construction and maintenance of paths, roads and highways of Roads of National, managed finally to a macrista of the first hour, the minister Guillermo Dietrich. So far this year, there have been consumed $ 24.800 million, which is equivalent to more than half of the annual budget allocated to the Ministry of Health.
The information available prevents to know what places were those resources, but it is easy to assume that a large part ended up in the province of Buenos Aires.
All anticipated, since, the formula that the macrismo be used to pump activity and work and, of course, improve their chances of election. This is a public work abundant, visible, and quick-run with a strong impact on the construction, more social plans and measures to distribute income downward.
And everything points to an objective of maximum that the Government has been drawn: that in 2017 for the economy to grow as less than 5%.
A similar number round the head of the entrepreneurs, according to comments widespread in the recent Colloquium of IDEA. Lack of course that that view favourable to be translated in investments of medium-and long-term.
Promises to the outside are plentiful, although the doubt that should be cleared nested within the directories. Is it worth risking silver or wait, as it happened clearly this year, to see a horizon more clearly, and how they are sorted are some of the variables to be decisive? Among them, the still complex evolution of the exchange rate.
By now, the queen of financial investment among those who can take advantage of it, short-term, without distinction of actors or major risks. There is abundant silver, only that almost all billed to the State.
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